Dados do Trabalho

Título

Potential range reduction of Atlantic Forest primates due to climate crisis

Resumo

Climate changes accelerated by the human use of natural resources affect biodiversity and cause species distribution shifts, contractions, and expansions. General documented patterns are mainly range shifts to poles direction and higher elevations, or deeply in marine environments. Climate change and disease as emerging threats to primates. Approximately one-quarter of all primates’ ranges have temperatures over the historical ones. We investigated how climate changes will influence endemic Atlantic Forest primate ranges using habitat suitability models and measuring potential changes in area and shifts in distributions. Climate change expected in 2100 may change the distribution area of Atlantic Forest primates (19 species). Fourteen species (74%) are predicted to lose more than 50% of their distribution, and nine species (47%) are predicted to lose more than 75% of their distribution. The balance (difference between area gain and loss) was negative, indicating a potential future loss, and differed among Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) future scenarios, indicating the strength of the reduction in the distribution is related to the severity of climate change. Directional shifts were detected to the south in several scenarios. The projected mean centroid latitudinal shift is ~72km to the south for 2100 SSP5-8.5 scenario. Our results include only climate change, but losses can even be greater if forest cover and forest cover changes are incorporated. The possibility of dispersal will depend on suitable routes and landscape configuration. Beyond that, species dispersal capacity needs to be equivalent to or higher than the spatial velocity of climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions should be urgently reduced. Our results also emphasize that no more forest loss is acceptable in this biome, and restoration, canopy bridges, friendly agroecosystems, and monitoring of infrastructure projects are urgent to enable dealing with climate change. The area loss magnitude can compromise the species viability and increase threat status.

Financiadores

O presente trabalho foi realizado com apoio da Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior – Brasil (CAPES) – Código de Financiamento 001 à AAL. A CAPES também apoia RB-M através do Programa Nacional de Pós Doutorado (PNPD) (processo: 88887.320996/2019-00).

Palavras-chave

climate change; distribution shifts; habitat suitability models

Área

Área 1 – Ecologia