Dados do Trabalho

Título

MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF ZOONOTIC MALARIA IN BRAZIL

Resumo

<p>Malaria was thought to have been eradicated from the Atlantic Coast of Brazil by the late 1970s. Previously thought to only infect non-human primates, recent molecular studies have identified the malaria parasite <em>Plasmodium simium</em> in humans along the Atlantic Coast of Brazil. Clinical symptoms present similarly to the common human-associated malaria parasite <em>Plasmodium vivax</em>, and the two parasites are difficult to distinguish with standard PCR assays or microscopy. Together, these observations raise the possibility that local monkey populations, particularly howler monkeys, act as reservoirs for zoonotic malaria that has been infecting human populations long-term.</p>

<p>Here, we use a mathematical-modeling approach to estimate the rate of cryptic <em>P. simiam</em> infection that has been misdiagnosed as <em>P. vivax</em> in the Rio de Janiero state. Specifically, we extend the classic Ross-MacDonald model of malaria transmission to include a primate reservoir of the disease. That is, we write a system of three coupled ordinary differential equations that models the infection and recovery rates of humans, mosquitos, and howler monkeys. Using stochastic simulations, we calculate the basic reproductive number, <em>R_0</em>.&nbsp; Under various spillover scenarios, we compare results to clinical incidence rates of <em>P. vivax</em> and consider the impact on malaria elimination probability. We find that the inferred spread of <em>P. simiam</em> is highly sensitive to mosquito population ecology, and therefore, climate change and urbanization. Generally, interventions to interrupt mosquito life-cycle will be more effective than interventions in monkey or human populations. In addition to improving our understanding of an understudied zoonotic malaria, and this model can be of general use to a variety of other systems of emerging vector-borne diseases with zoonotic reservoirs.</p>

Financiamento

Palavras-chave

<p>zoonotic disease, malaria, mathematical modeling</p>

Área

Área 7 - Saúde