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Título

Distribution mismatches between a highly frugivorous primate and its fruits in Amazonia in response to climate change

Corpo do texto

Climate change can cause shifts in the range of organisms, which can disrupt their mutualistic relationships, but we still have little information on this topic. To test the hypothesis that climate change may cause mismatches between frugivores and their primary foods, I created habitat suitability models for a threatened, highly frugivorous spider monkey ([Ateles belzebuth]) and five Amazonian fruits that make up over 60% of this primate’s diet ([Attalea maripa], [Ecclinusa guianensis], [Pouteria guianensis], [Pradosia surinamensis], [Tetragastris panamensis]) using MaxEnt. I compared their current and future ranges to understand the degree of overlap under climate change, considering both controlled (RCP4.5) and permissive (RCP8.5) future scenarios for the year 2070. Compared to current ranges, the models indicate reductions of 65% and 80% in the future suitable areas for [A. belzebuth], under the controlled and permissive scenarios, respectively. They also indicate future reductions in suitable areas of 66-78% for three out of five fruits in the controlled scenario and 26-90% for four out of five fruits in the permissive scenario. Contrary to expectations, [Pradosia surinamensis] (in the controlled scenario) and [E. guianensis] are expected to expand their range by 2070. Four out of the five fruits showed reductions of 5-84% and 3-90% in their overlapping ranges with [A. belzebuth] in the controlled and permissive scenarios, respectively. However, [Pradosia surinamensis] would increase the overlap with spider monkeys. These results suggest a future mismatch between the ranges of [A. belzebuth] and important fruits in the diet of this specialist frugivore. Such a mismatch could potentially lead to the extinction of spider monkeys. It would also compromise the dispersal of fruit seeds. This study is one of the first to assess the impact of future climate change on mutualistic relationships in the Amazonia. Conservation planning for these species should consider the effects of climate change.

Financiadores

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (PNPD/CAPES)

Palavras-chave

Frugivory; Mutualistic relationships; Range shifts