Dados do Trabalho

Título:

NATURAL FOREST REGENERATION ON ANTHROPIZED LANDSCAPES COULD OVERCOME CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS ON THE ENDANGERED MANED SLOTH (BRADYPUS TORQUATUS, ILLIGER 1811)

Resumo:

Climate change and habitat loss have been identified as the main causes of local species extinction. Forest regeneration and protected areas are essential to buffer climate change impacts and to ensure habitats for threatened species. Using Ecological Niche Modeling – under both future climate and forest restoration scenarios – we assessed the current and future environmental suitability for Bradypus torquatus. This species is threatened with extinction due to its strictly folivorous lifestyle, its limited distribution – endemic to the coast Atlantic Forest and is thus classified as Vulnerable by national and international assessments. We compared environmental suitability for two Evolutionary Significant Units of B. torquatus (ESUnorth and ESUsouth tipping-point of 18°S across the species distribution range) using two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) for 2070, and three potential forest regeneration scenarios: 1) no forest regeneration, 2) implementing a minimum forest regeneration, from the perspective of the species requirements (35% of forest cover to maintain a viable population), and 3) implementation of a maximum regeneration. Combining both landscape and climate variables, we develop future environmental suitability models: 1) FS_REGzero, projects future climate without forest regeneration, analyzing the losses/gains of suitable areas only from a climatic perspective, 2) FS_REGmin, projects future climate and a moderate landscape change, 3) FS_REGmax, projects future climate and more substantial changes in the landscape. Further, we evaluated the protection degree of the resultant models, according to Brazilian land-protection laws: 1) SPA: Strictly Protected Areas, 2) PASU: Protected Areas from Sustainable Use, 3) OPA: Outside from Protected Areas, and 4) PPA: Permanent Protection Areas (environmentally sensitive areas in private properties). Finally, considering the current forest cover, we calculated the deficit of PPA and LR in each ESU. Forest regeneration might mitigate the deleterious effects of climate change by maintaining and increasing environmental suitability in future scenarios. The ESUnorth contains ≌ 75% more suitable areas (21,570 km²) than the ESUsouth (12,386 km²), with an increase in all future scenarios (up to 45,648 km² of new suitable areas), while ESUsouth might have a significant decrease (up to 7,546 km² less). Suitable areas are mostly unprotected (ESUnorth – 65.5% and ESUsouth – 58.3%). Thus, protected areas can maintain only a small portion of current and future suitable areas. Both ESUs present a high deficit of PPA and LR, highlighting the urgent necessity to recovery these areas, promoting a large-scale restoration aiming to mitigate climate change effects, and achieve a minimum forested area to safeguard the species. A long-term conservation of B. torquatus will benefit from the planning of functional landscapes, including the forest regeneration besides minimum requirements, in addition to the protection of forest areas, thereby creating a mosaic of suitable habitats.
Key words: Atlantic Forest; Conservation; Climate change; Passive restoration, Landscape ecology; Pilosa; Xenarthra.

Financiamento:

PMS recebe bolsa do Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) nº 141571/2017-9 e nº 350057/2020-6, e Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior – (CAPES) nº 88881.188493/2018-01. MCR agradece Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) nº 2013/50421-2, nº 2020/1779-5, nº 2021/08534-0 e nº 2021/10195-0, CNPq nº 312045/2013-1, nº 12292/2016 -3, nº 442147/2020-1, nº 402765/2021-4 e nº 313016/2021-6) e CAPES nº 88881.068425/2014-01. AGC e KMPMBF agradecem ao CNPq pela Bolsa de Produtividade em Pesquisa nº 303101/2017-2 e nº 308632/2018-4, respectivamente. Apoio à pesquisa APP da Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa de Minas Gerais - FAPEMIG e CAPES. MHV e BBN receberam bolsas da Capes nº 88887.513979/2020-00 e código financeiro 001.

Área

Ecologia